2.4 "Looking ahead to 2018"

1. How many total Republicans in Congress have already announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018?
Twelve Republicans have announced they are not running.
2. How many total Democrats in Congress have already announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018?
            Only three Democrats have announced they are not running.
3. What is so unique about the discrepancy between these two groups?
            Because so few Democrats are leaving, it is possible that there may be a Democratic wave in Congress.
4. What factors do the authors of the article suggest are behind these decisions not to run for reelection?
             It is possible that many fear the backlash against the Republican party in the wake of Donald Trump's presidency.
5.  Why might the elections for those in "safe red districts" be more difficult than in recent elections?
             As compared to previous elections, the dissatisfaction with a party has not been so widespread.
6. Why does the large number of incumbents retiring make it easier for Democrats to gain seats in the House than they otherwise would?
             It is easier to flip open seats to the other party than those filled with incumbents.
7. Why might this same thing help Democrats recruit better candidates?
            Candidates who are looking to get elected may feel more inclined to go Democrat as they will have an advantage in these upcoming elections.
8. About how much does FairVote say that incumbents are helped just by being incumbents in a normal election year?

             Incumbents get a 3% to 7% advantage.

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