4.1 "Midterm Predictions"
1. Why was it strange for the Democratic candidate to win in the Pennsylvania district? It was strange because Trump won in that district by 20 percentage points. 2. On the chart, what is "Democratic swing"? Democratic swing is the difference between the special election result and the district’s partisan lean. 3. Which special elections so far have had the largest Democratic swing? Alabama U.S. Senate, Kansas 4th, and Pennsylvania 18th have had the largest Democratic swing. 4. How is the generic ballot polling different from the results to far in these special elections? Republicans trail Democrats by 8 or 9 percentage points on the generic ballot, which suggests a close race for control of the House this year that only narrowly favors Democrats. By contrast, the 16- or 17-point average Democratic overperformance in special elections so far suggests that Democrats are gaining lots of support. 5. What is the difference in the Republican and Democratic level...