4.1 "Midterm Predictions"

1. Why was it strange for the Democratic candidate to win in the Pennsylvania district?
It was strange because Trump won in that district by 20 percentage points.
2. On the chart, what is "Democratic swing"?
Democratic swing is the difference between the special election result and the district’s partisan lean.
3. Which special elections so far have had the largest Democratic swing?
Alabama U.S. Senate, Kansas 4th, and Pennsylvania 18th have had the largest Democratic swing.
4. How is the generic ballot polling different from the results to far in these special elections?
Republicans trail Democrats by  8 or 9 percentage points on the generic ballot, which suggests a close race for control of the House this year that only narrowly favors Democrats. By contrast, the 16- or 17-point average Democratic overperformance in special elections so far suggests that Democrats are gaining lots of support.
5. What is the difference in the Republican and Democratic levels of interest in the mid-term elections?
60% of Democrats and 64% of Clinton voters say they have a high degree of interest in the 2018 midterms. 54% of Republicans and 37% of independents say the same.
6. What steps had Republicans taken to try to defeat Connor Lamb in the Pennsylvania district?
Republicans dumped millions of dollars to hold Pennsylvania’s 18th District; they also went all in on their tax cut message, touting the tax bill passed in December. However, they still lost.
7. What has happened to President Trump's approval ratings this year?
President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 43 percent among all Americans, four points higher than where it was in January. Although his ratings are increasing, he still isn’t helping the GOP.
8. What do you think that indicates about voters' attitudes towards Republicans?

Although voters are slightly warming up to Trump, this does not translate to Congress. Voters attitudes towards the president are not affecting their attitudes towards Republicans- from whom they probably expect more. Republicans need to take public opinion into better account if they want to be elected into office.

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